Formula 1: Azerbaijan Grand Prix Prediction

After the Spanish Grand Prix, the drivers are once again set to race on a unique track. This time, the race will take place on the Baku City Circuit, where top speeds well over 300 kilometers per hour are combined with a number of extremely narrow sections—all set against the backdrop of the beautiful, historic city center in Azerbaijan’s capital.

It’s clear that even a small mistake can have major consequences, and the long straights offer plenty of opportunities to pass. Who will be best able to adapt to the streets of Baku this weekend? Will Kimi Antonelli claim his ninth victory of the season? We look ahead to the race and share our Azerbaijan Grand Prix prediction.

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Azerbaijan Grand Prix Preview

The Formula 1 season is really starting to take shape, and it seems clear that Kimi Antonelli is gradually emerging as the clear favorite to win the world title. This is especially true because he now has a significant lead over his Mercedes teammate George Russell, who is currently in second place in the world championship standings. With victories in both Italy and Spain, the Italian can also look back on two exceptionally strong races.

Behind them, the competition remains intense. Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris, and Charles Leclerc are racking up points, while Max Verstappen has also been back at the front more often in recent weeks. Last weekend, the four-time champion from the Netherlands finished in second place. Still, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is one that could really shake things up. Especially since the street circuit in Eastern Europe demands very different skills than the track where last week’s race took place in Madrid.

Latest Developments in Formula 1

Mercedes Continues to Impress

There’s no denying Mercedes’ impressive performance right now. Kimi Antonelli not only leads the championship but has also won the last two races. That brings his total to eight wins this season. His victory at Monza was particularly impressive, given that he had to start from the very back of the grid after receiving a grid penalty.

Meanwhile, George Russell is ensuring that Mercedes consistently scores plenty of points with its second car as well. Still, the circuit in Baku demands completely different skills from the drivers. Everyone will be aiming for maximum top speed, while they’ll need to stay sharp every second due to the large number of very tight turns on the narrow Azerbaijani streets.

Verstappen is back at the front

For Max Verstappen, 2026 hasn’t gone as he had hoped so far. Still, the Dutchman seems to have taken a step forward in recent weeks. After finishing third at the Italian Grand Prix, he even secured a second-place finish in Madrid.

The next challenge awaits in Baku. Verstappen knows what it takes to win there: he already stood on the top step of the podium there in 2022. The main question is whether his car will have enough speed on the long straight this weekend. If so, Verstappen might once again be in contention for a podium finish.

What does the Baku City Circuit look like?

The Baku City Circuit is one of the most unique tracks on the Formula 1 calendar. The circuit winds through the streets of Baku and is 6.003 kilometers long in total. In addition, there are no fewer than 20 turns, and each driver must complete 51 laps. This adds up to a total of about 306 kilometers.

Still, it’s mainly the combination of extremely narrow streets and very high speeds that takes center stage. In the old town, the drivers often skim past the walls, while on the long straight leading to the start-finish line, they can go full throttle. Speeds there exceed 300 km/h, and there are plenty of opportunities to pass. As a result, it’s up to the teams to find the right balance between cornering grip and top speed on the straights. Which team will manage this best?

Azerbaijan Grand Prix Prediction

At first glance, Kimi Antonelli seems to be the clear favorite heading into Baku after two consecutive victories. It’s no coincidence that the Italian driver for Mercedes is the bookmakers’ top pick.

Still, in this Azerbaijan Grand Prix preview, we’re focusing on Max Verstappen. The Dutch driver finished third and second in the last two races and seems to be closing the gap on the front-runners once again. In fact, in the last four races in which he crossed the finish line unscathed, he finished on the podium. We expect a similar performance at the Baku Grand Prix—especially since he was clearly the strongest driver there last year. A top-3 finish for Max Verstappen pays out odds of 1.91.