Uruguay v Spain: 2026 World Cup Prediction

It hasn’t been Uruguay’s tournament so far. The 1924 and 1928 world champions are a regular fixture at the World Cup and appeared to have been handed a favourable draw, with Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde in their group. Yet, after two matches, they have just two points, whilst they still have to face their toughest opponent. Spain need at least one point to be certain of progressing to the next round. In short: we’re in for a real cracker. Here’s our Uruguay v Spain prediction.

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Uruguay v Spain preview

Spain have secured their place in the next round of the 2026 World Cup, whilst Uruguay must win to secure a place in the knockout stages. Here’s a brief look at both teams.

Current Form & Team News

Uruguay

Going into the tournament, many people had high expectations of Uruguay. Not necessarily as World Cup winners, but certainly as a team capable of giving anyone a run for their money. No one, therefore, expected the South Americans to fail to beat Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. Marcelo Bielsa’s side are struggling, particularly in attack. We’ll therefore be looking out for a standout performance from captain Federico Valverde. But as a midfielder, it’s always difficult to get involved in the attack all the time. The only thing that counts against Spain is a win. Will they manage it?

Spain

Spain bounced back superbly after the 0–0 draw against Cape Verde. Against Saudi Arabia, they were already 3–0 up at half-time, before extending their lead to 4–0 shortly after the break. The return of Lamine Yamal, in particular, was a huge boost for Luis de la Fuente’s side. He scored his first goal of the 2026 World Cup within the first quarter of an hour, after which Mikel Oyarzabal sealed the victory with two goals. If they also beat Uruguay, they’ll top the group and avoid facing another group winner.

Head-to-Head

Uruguay and Spain have played seven international matches against each other in the past. Of these seven matches, Spain won four, whilst three ended in a draw. This means that Uruguay have never beaten the Spanish before. This needs to change if Uruguay are to qualify for the next round.

Predicted line-ups

Uruguay (4-3-3):

Rochet, Olivera, Giménez, Araujo, Varela, Ugarte, Le Cruz, Valverde, M. Araujo, Núñez, Canobbio

Spain (4-3-3):

Simon, Cucurella, Laporte, Cubarsi, Porro, Rodri, Olmo, Pedri, Torres, Oyarzabal, Yamal

Uruguay v Spain betting tips

Betting tip 1: Federico Valverde to have more than 0.5 shots on target

As mentioned, a lot depends on the performance of Federico Valverde for Uruguay, one of Real Madrid’s better players. We think he’ll take the lead and, come what may, have several attempts from distance. It’s no coincidence that he’s arguably the midfielder with the best shooting technique in Europe. Betting on Federico Valverde to have more than 0.5 shots on target at Oranje Palace gives you odds of 2.43.

Betting tip 2: Under 0.5 goals for Uruguay

We’ve already hinted at this somewhat, but we have little confidence that Uruguay will achieve a good result. Firstly, because they’ve had a mediocre tournament so far. On the other hand, Spain are in good form and don’t concede many goals. Add to that the history between the two countries, and we’re going for zero goals for Uruguay. Under 0.5 goals for Uruguay gives you odds of 2.00 at Oranje Palace.

Prediction: Uruguay v Spain

** Final score: Uruguay 0–2 Spain**
We believe the Uruguayans simply lack what it takes to trouble Spain. Spain boast one of the best squads at the 2026 World Cup and will undoubtedly be keen to win to maintain their form. We therefore expect a comfortable victory for Spain.